Tag: Declaration of Independence

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Triumph of the Trads

The vision recurs; the eastern sun has a second rise; history repeats her tale unconsciously, and goes off into a mystic rhyme; ages are prototypes of other ages, and the winding course of time brings us round to the same spot again.

— A N Mouravieff

In this series, I am presenting scenarios that represent possible Futures. Each Future is not intended to be an end state. Instead, each is a possible way station in our country’s evolution about a decade from now. My goal is not to write a history of each Future but rather to point to plausible paths that could lead us to that Future – looking for its “mystic rhymes” in our history. Unfortunately, politics will impinge on each scenario, but I will try to be as non-partisan as possible.

I call this first way station the “Triumph of the Trads,” signaling a resurgence of more traditional American values: family, community, civility and hope. The voice of “woke-ness” is muted, not silenced. As in the late ‘50s and early ‘60s there is dissent, but it is now more couched in aspirational terms, echoing Dr King: calling on our better angels to surpass what we have been, calling for evolution not revolution.

Oddly enough, this scenario starts with the election of Trump to the Presidency (His braggadocio and bluster are perhaps a better reflection of our current state than we’d like to admit.). His 2024 Presidential campaign captures an unparalleled number of minority and blue collar voters, overcoming Biden’s advantage among college-educated voters. Trump immediately begins a concerted effort to trim our bloated bureaucracies. He proceeds with his now-customary chaotic fits and starts, punctuated by the media’s predictions of dire consequences. But there is a definite shift toward a leaner, more competent, federal government.

In 2026, we celebrate the 250th anniversary of our independence. Planning has gone on for over a decade for celebrations across the country. There is a veritable orgy of patriotic fervor, and a renewed dedication on the part of many to the principles enunciated so well in the Declaration of Independence. Although there are protests, the anniversary celebrations are wildly successful. This is in part due to a surge in religious feeling and churchgoer attendance. Overall, a feeling of something like hope starts to bloom across most of the country.

However, barely after the confetti has been swept up, ill health forces Trump to hand the reins to his Veep. His selection as Vice-President is very significant in this Future. Trump has chosen a younger person of color with an inspiring family story, emphasizing personal effort and grit. The now-President is almost an embodiment of the American Dream.

Seldom have the Man and the Moment been so well-met. The new President builds on the bursts of patriotism to begin to rebuild bipartisanship in Congress. Both parties follow his lead in consciously turning down the rhetorical heat. This stands him in good stead in his second term when he gets Congress to pass dramatic reforms to both Medicare and Social Security, assuring their solvency.

During his first term, non-college-educated workers regain the upward income trajectory they enjoyed prior to the pandemic. Inflation is tamed. His second election campaign signals the completion of the realignment of the political parties. The working class coalition that was so important in getting Democrats elected in the 20th Century is no longer a voting bloc the Dems can rely on. In fact, joining with small business owners, they tend to vote cultural issues rather their pocket books, reject “woke-ism,” and vote Republican especially in the 2028 and 2032 elections. The Democratic party is now led by Big Business (esp. Big Tech), academia, the cultural elites and those living in big cities (but whose populations continue to decrease).

The President also uses the Bully Pulpit as well as the Department of Education to advance policies aimed at encouraging diversity of viewpoints. The University of Chicago’s principles serve as the basis. Incidents of viewpoint discrimination are much less frequent, though there are pockets of resistance.

When the President leaves office on January 20, 2037, his successor rightly characterizes him as “everyone’s friend, but nobody’s fool.” Economically, the country is the strongest it’s been in the last quarter century. This is helped by demographics: as the Baby Boomers pass, less of our budget has to go toward their entitlements and pensions. In foreign affairs, the President has steered a careful course. His State Department has extended the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia. China has continued to claim Taiwan, but his Cabinet has greatly decreased the nation’s dependence on China for precious metals and electronics. The standoff in Ukraine has been resolved.

Perhaps his greatest legacy, however, is a turn toward civility in the country. He is not a very flamboyant person, but after the Sturm und Drang of Trump-Biden people find that they kind of like “boring.” The positive economy and the downturn in the volume of political rhetoric also have important implications for communities.

In this scenario, communities find what is probably their most positive Future. The financial stress due to pensions is largely relieved. The economic gains of their members translate into increased business activity and tax revenues. The trimmed federal government empowers them to do more for themselves. The rebirth of civility in civic affairs means that they can actually accomplish more – compromise is easier when everyone can get something they want. For many communities this leads to an enhanced “Culture of Accomplishment” – a confidence that the people living there can make good things happen. As a result, the quality of life in a majority of communities is improved, though some still stumble (There’s no cure for bad governance!).

In short, this scenario is actually the “High Resilience” scenario – more resilient families and individuals living in more resilient communities. In a sense, this is sort of an outlier – probably a low probability of occurrence from where we are now. Many things need to break right for it to happen. But that’s one of the benefits of working through scenarios – we can take conscious action to go after those we deem more positive, and try to mitigate the more negative.

In my next post, I’m going to interrupt this series to look at some interesting data relating to corruption. Following that, I’ll resume this series with “The Empire Strikes Back.”

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Our Declaration of Independence

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. –

Declaration of Independence

This week the US celebrates its founding. The date chosen commemorates the signing of our Declaration of Independence from Great Britain. This document is arguably the most important written in the English language in the last 250 years. Its ringing words sparked our own and the French revolutions. It voiced the aspirations of the voiceless around the world yearning for a better life.

And let there be no mistake – it is truly an aspirational document. It articulates a vision of what our nation should be. Our Founding Fathers were all too aware that government formed by Man cannot be perfect; our Constitution with its checks and balances is their attempt to protect our “inalienable rights.” I believe all of them recognized their society’s failings; Slavery – America’s original sin – chief among them. Three quarters of a million died as part of our national penance to expiate and exterminate this sin. The Declaration and the Constitution established an aspirational culture in our country that continues to be a magnet attracting those from other countries who want to have a piece of the American Dream.

However, we now live in a world in which many Americans are questioning those aspirations and would have us deem the American Dream a nightmare. Some want to subvert our aspirational culture and deny the importance of the rights so many have sought and so many have fought to ensure.

This battle of conflicting visions of our future is being fought at the national level, in our state capitals, and in our communities. It has profound implications for our resilience at each of these levels. And while Jefferson, Franklin, Adams, Livingston and Sherman didn’t use that term, I think it’s important to examine the impact of the Declaration on our resilience.

First and foremost, the Declaration is about “Rights.” In our highly polarized politics at the national level, both sides claim to be for “Freedom,” although they seem to be worlds apart in what they think Freedom is. To me, our Bill of Rights – inspired by the Declaration – lays out an excellent definition of our Rights, especially in the First Amendment. We must be free to believe as we wish and to express those beliefs. We must be free to peaceably assemble. In the Constitution, these are couched in terms of prohibiting the federal government from denying these rights. But it is just as important that we recognize that no individual or group has the right to abridge those freedoms either. “Cancel culture” does not exist in a society that values freedom.

But – in more subtle ways – the Declaration also speaks to Freedom’s homely twin – Responsibility. In the Declaration, the Founding Fathers talk about the duty of the people to “take arms against a sea of troubles, and by opposing end them” (to wax Shakespearean). The Declaration also states that the colonists have reached out to their fellow citizens in Great Britain, implying a responsibility of citizens to support each other.

This theme is also hidden in the famous phrase “Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.” This was originally the more prosaic “Life, liberty and property” borrowed from John Locke. Jefferson changed this based on another of Locke’s essays in which the pursuit of happiness is seen as the antithesis of today’s “don’t think twice, it’s all right” culture. Rather, in Locke’s (and apparently Jefferson’s) view, the pursuit of happiness was not chasing whatever “feels good now,” but rather thinking in terms of what is best overall. In other words, seeking the timeless rather than the timely. In the Federalist papers, both Madison and Hamilton referred to this as social happiness.

Today, many question the Declaration and its worth. They assert that the Founding Fathers’ conceptions were necessarily corrupted by their owning of slaves. They assert that so much has happened – so much more has been learned since then that these simple principles should be effectively abandoned. But what they fail to realize is that the Declaration is indeed timeless; that the flawed men who wrote it were all too aware of their own flaws. Those who would modify the Rights the Declaration so powerfully asserts ignore the role that these words played in bringing an end to slavery. The role that they played in the French Revolution. The role they more recently played in the UN’s Charter. The role these words continue to play in drawing immigrants to America so that they can pursue their dreams, so that they can create and pursue their own happiness. Calvin Coolidge said it well:

If all men are created equal, that is final. If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final. If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final. No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions. If anyone wishes to deny their truth or their soundness, the only direction in which he can proceed historically is not forward, but backward … Those who wish to proceed in that direction can not lay claim to progress. They are reactionary. Their ideas are not more modern, but more ancient, than those of the Revolutionary fathers.

Only free men and women can take purposeful action to better themselves and their families, whether in adversity or in good times. Only free men and women can truly be resilient. Our Declaration is the fundamental statement of both the Rights and Responsibilities of that freedom. It is thus the basis – the foundation – of our resilience.